As one of that sad and very small band of people who confidently predicted a Tory win last year, a vote for Brexit and a Donald Trump presidency, but who didn’t bother to place an accumulator bet on all three, hence the sadness, may I make another couple of predictions?
First, Mr Trump has clearly been positioning himself for good relations with President Putin of Russia, which is suffering hugely with both trade sanctions and the collapse of oil prices.
I believe that there will be a Trump/Putin accord to sort out the mess in the Ukraine and calm down Syria, halting the flow of refugees, in return for an easing, perhaps even lifting, of trade sanctions. You’re welcome, Europe.
The bland EU commissioner who said that President Trump should show a firm hand with Putin demonstrates the essential heart of the problem with the EU. It just doesn’t learn from its mistakes.
If you push Putin, he will test you. Give him a way out that makes him a winner with the Russians and you can get what you want – Realpolitik, not EU wishful thinking. Being firm with Russians only increases their solidarity – ask the Nazis in 1942 what happened when they tried it at Stalingrad. They can take proper punishment.
Second, a US-UK free trade deal. Mr Trump is well invested in his mother’s native Scotland, and I bet that Nicola Sturgeon is feeling a bit stupid right about now. She managed to insult a huge investor in her country and now the President of the USA. Well played, Nickie.
Trump’s instinct is clearly Anglophile, unlike Obama, so watch this space.
He has won a monopoly on the avenues of power in the USA, controlling the House of Representatives, the Senate and the Presidency. We all know what happens when you get three avenues in monopoly – you can build a Trump hotel.
So, let’s hope he can deliver, perhaps not a hotel on Pennsylvania Avenue and a Mexican wall, but at least a step back from the brink with Russia and free trade with us.
Or, we’ll all be asking “where’s yer troosers, Donald?”