The YouGov MRP poll came closest to predicting the outcome of the 2017 General Election, calling 93% of seats correctly when Theresa May lost her majority, against the expectations and predictions of many.
As previously reported, a fortnight ago it suggested that if the election was held then, the Tories would win 359 seats – 42 more than two years ago, which would be the party’s best performance since 1987.
Its model showed Labour losing 51 seats, from 262 to 211, which would represent its worst performance since 1983.
However, its latest data, published last night (Tuesday, December 10), shows a shift towards Labour, with the party up to 231 seats and the Tories down to 339 seats. And the margin of error means that while a small Conservative majority is the likely outcome, it cannot rule out a hung parliament.
It suggests now that the Lib Dems would end up with 15 seats, the Greens one and the Brexit Party none, while the SNP would secure 41 seats in Scotland and Plaid Cymru four in Wales.
In terms of the four Northumberland constituencies, it continues to predict that Berwick is a safe Conservative seat for the incumbent Anne-Marie Trevelyan.
Meanwhile, Hexham has changed from being a safe seat for Tory incumbent Guy Opperman to a likely seat, although he is still predicted to secure more than half of the vote.
The poll continues to forecast Wansbeck as a likely rather than safe seat, suggesting that the share for the Labour Party’s chairman, Ian Lavery, will drop from 57% to around 45%, due to the presence of a Brexit Party candidate and small Conservative gains.
Two weeks ago, Blyth Valley, where long-standing Labour MP Ronnie Campbell, who secured more than half of the vote in 2017, has stood down, was described as a lean Labour seat.
However, the gap has now widened in favour of Labour, predicting a 45% vote share to the Tories’ 37%, and it is described as a likely seat for the party to hold now.
If these predictions ring true, Northumberland will continue to be represented by two Conservative and two Labour MPs, as it has been since 2015.
The YouGov MRP methodology includes 105,612 interviews conducted over seven days up to and including December 10 and analysis of key demographics, past voting behaviour and the likely turnout among different demographic groups.
However, it adds: ‘As this is a national model, it does not always account for specific local factors that may shape the vote in some seats.’
Full list of those standing in the four Northumberland constituencies
Berwick-Upon-Tweed: Tom Hancock (Liberal Democrat); Thomas Stewart (Green); Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Conservative); Trish Williams (Labour).
Blyth Valley: Thom Chapman (Liberal Democrats); Susan Dungworth (Labour); Dawn Furness (Green); Ian Levy (Conservative); Mark Peart (Brexit Party).
Hexham: Penny Grennan (Labour); Stephen Howse (Liberal Democrat); Nick Morphet (Green); Guy Opperman (Conservative).
Wansbeck: Michael Flynn (Christian People’s Alliance); Jack Gebhard (Conservative); Ian Lavery (Labour); Steve Leyland (Green); Stephen Psallidas (Liberal Democrat); Eden Webley (Brexit Party).