Covid hospital admissions 'on a downslope' in Northumberland

Covid-19 activity in Northumberland’s hospitals ‘seems to be on the downslope’ following the recent spike in cases, an NHS boss has said.
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Dr Jeremy Rushmer, the executive medical director at Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust, also said that coronavirus mortality does not appear to be as high as it was during the first wave.

His comments came during a comprehensive update to the Thursday, November 26, board meeting for the trust, which runs hospitals and community services in Northumberland and North Tyneside.

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On hospital admissions, he said: “We’re pretty confident that we’ve levelled off right across the patch (North East and North Cumbria), but that’s not absolutely uniform across all of our area.

Dr Jeremy Rushmer, medical director at the Northumbria Specialist Emergency Care Hospital near Cramlington.Dr Jeremy Rushmer, medical director at the Northumbria Specialist Emergency Care Hospital near Cramlington.
Dr Jeremy Rushmer, medical director at the Northumbria Specialist Emergency Care Hospital near Cramlington.

“Although we use the phrase Covid pandemic, that pandemic is made up of lots of local outbreaks with different patterns based on density and population types – I think a lot of it is driven by deprivation and housing type.”

Dr Rushmer had earlier noted that the trust’s peak in terms of inpatients seemed to have been about 10 days before the meeting, and ‘we seem to be on the downslope’.

Comparing the trusts across the region, data showed that Northumbria Healthcare had been ranked about seventh for Covid bed occupancy, but ‘progressed very rapidly over a short period of time after the half-term break (at the end of October) up to second and subsequently dropped down again’, which resulted in Covid and winter plans having to be put into action ‘in short order’.

Sir James Mackey, Northumbria Healthcare chief executive.Sir James Mackey, Northumbria Healthcare chief executive.
Sir James Mackey, Northumbria Healthcare chief executive.
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Over the same period, Dr Rushmer reported that there was also a ‘very significant increase’ in the seriousness of Covid cases, with the number of Level 3 patients – those needing ventilators – almost doubling to a peak about seven days before the meeting.

In terms of the overall bed occupancy of Northumberland’s hospitals, recent figures have been higher than in mid-April, when much less non-Covid activity was taking place during that first strictest phase of lockdown.

However, the occupancy at the Northumbria Specialist Emergency Care Hospital in Cramlington around the middle of November, for example, was still lower than at the same point last year, demonstrating the pressures that a ‘normal’ winter can place on the NHS.

On mortality, Dr Rushmer said: “We had a very significant blip of coronavirus mortality in our hospitals in April and we have seen that returning after a summer where we were free from death in August and had very few in July, but as yet not in the numbers we saw in the first wave.

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“I always add the health warning that the mortality data lags behind the admissions by probably about three to four weeks.

“At the moment, since September, we’ve had 700 admissions and 144 deaths, while in the first wave, it was 508 and 184 (April to June).

“This is what most of the rest of the country is noticing, that there are significantly lower numbers of deaths, we haven’t age-adjusted that yet, it will be interesting when we do, but it does seem that mortality hasn’t been as high.”

He also pointed out that while the North East has been in an excess death period for the past six weeks, ie, more deaths than you would expect, again it has not been as high as during the first wave.

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In his introduction to the meeting, Northumbria Healthcare’s chief executive Sir James Mackey said: “It has been really tough this last few weeks with the second wave or the continuation of the first, whichever it is. In many respects, it’s been harder because we’ve been trying to maintain so much other access.”

He added: “There are signs that things are easing, not just here but all around us, with asymptomatic testing and especially the vaccine – which is fantastic scientific progress in such a short period of time – that within reach is a more normal feel again, where people can be going more about their normal business, albeit we will be cautious for a while. It does feel like we are not far away from a potential game-changer.”

Sir James also paid tribute to staff and partners as well as the ‘great understanding of the public’ during the pandemic so far.

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